Heart Valve Disease Deaths Rise Among Older Americans, Reversing Decades of Progress

After nearly two decades of decline, death rates from valvular heart disease among U.S. adults ages 65 and older have increased, according to preliminary research presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026 in Chicago. The study found that after reaching a low point before the pandemic, the death rate rose from 104 to more than 109 deaths per 100,000 people between 2018 and 2023. Researchers project that rates will remain around 109 per 100,000 through 2040, rather than resuming the previous decline.

The findings matter for Texas, where an aging population and large rural areas may mirror the disparities observed nationally. The study, which analyzed CDC data from 1999 to 2023, identified more than 1.2 million heart valve disease-related deaths. Death rates were highest among men, non-Hispanic white adults, adults ages 85 and older, and people living in nonmetropolitan areas. Nonmetropolitan areas recorded 120.5 deaths per 100,000 compared to 110.1 in metropolitan areas, a gap that could have implications for rural Texas communities where access to specialized cardiac care is often limited.

“The decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped,” said study author Hritvik Jain, M.D., a resident physician at Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh. “As the U.S. population continues to age, we need to focus on earlier detection, timely treatment and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities.”

The American Heart Association has launched initiatives to address the trend. In 2020, the organization introduced Target: Aortic Stenosis™ to support earlier diagnosis and consistent care for aortic stenosis, and in 2025 it launched the Heart Valve Initiative, a national effort to ensure patients are identified and treated sooner. According to the Association’s 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics, more than 80 million people worldwide live with heart valve disease, and in the U.S. it contributes to more than 57,000 deaths each year.

“The recent reversal of progress in valvular heart disease mortality is especially alarming in light of the substantial advances in treatment achieved over the past decade and a half,” said Sreekanth Vemulapalli, M.D., a volunteer member of the Association’s Target: Aortic Stenosis Scientific Advisory Group and associate professor of medicine at Duke University. He noted the disconnect between therapeutic innovation and population-level outcomes underscores the need for quality improvement and educational initiatives.

The study used Joinpoint regression software to assess trends and projected mortality through 2040. Limitations include reliance on death-certificate data, which may contain coding inaccuracies and cannot capture disease severity or treatment history. The findings are considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. For Texas businesses and health care providers, the projected persistence of elevated death rates signals a growing need for cardiovascular services, preventive screenings and investments in care delivery, particularly as the state’s older adult population expands. More information is available in the abstract and via the Association’s heart.org.