Aemetis Operating Inflection Becomes Visible in 2Q26 Results

Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX), highlighting a significant operating inflection in the company's second quarter 2026 results. The report, released on August 10, 2026, notes that Aemetis achieved positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA, driven by quarterly 45Z recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics. These gains more than offset weaker India revenue tied to the timing of OMC tenders.

Revenue for the quarter increased 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, falling short of the $68.6 million consensus estimate. However, the underlying performance was stronger than the revenue variance suggests. India's revenue impact was due to tender timing, while both California businesses delivered higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution. Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a loss of $3.4 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a significant turnaround from negative $5.8 million.

The dairy RNG segment remains the clearest growth driver, with sales volume increasing 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu. Segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Seven approved LCFS pathways with an average carbon intensity of negative 380 are already improving credit economics. Six additional pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing additional runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.

The Keyes earnings bridge continues to advance, with the mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates approximately $32 million of annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operating improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, but the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the thesis. With only $1.0 million of unrestricted cash and $415.9 million of total debt, refinancing progress is essential to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.

For more details, the full announcement is available at Stonegate Capital Partners.