Rate-Hike Retrades Put a Premium on Capital That Can Close, Kaufman Says

Commercial real estate buyers are reopening deals signed earlier this year after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16, and Daniel Kaufman, founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, says that wave of retrades is separating capital that can close from capital that cannot. Minutes released Oct. 7 showed most Fed officials believe another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Since then, The Wall Street Journal and trade outlets including CRE Daily and Citybiz have reported buyers pressing to renegotiate deals signed earlier in 2026, with some threatening to walk away. Trepp data cited in that coverage show 11.42% of CMBS loans were with special servicers in August, the highest share since February 2013.

“A retrade is a buyer telling a seller the deal was really a bet on the rate,” Kaufman said. “When the rate moves, the price moves, and everyone downstream waits. The sellers, contractors and towns counting on those projects carry that uncertainty. We invest our own capital, so our underwriting has to work without assuming the next Fed decision goes our way.” The dynamic matters well beyond the negotiating table. Kaufman said the moment favors long-term owners over buyers whose returns depend on a narrow financing window, particularly in housing, where a stalled closing can push back construction and leave homes unbuilt. For Texas, where population growth has kept housing demand and development activity elevated, a financing shock that delays closings translates directly into fewer homes delivered and slower timelines for the builders, contractors and local workforces tied to those projects.

“This is when family office capital should earn its keep,” Kaufman said. “We are not looking to win by grinding down a seller who negotiated in good faith. We want to be the partner people can count on at the closing table, because on a housing deal a delay is not a line item; it is fewer homes for the people who need them.” Kaufman & Company invests only its own capital and does not raise outside funds. Its operating companies span housing development, design and construction, real estate consulting and venture investment, and this month the company announced BUILD 2030, a national initiative coordinating its housing, real estate and AI infrastructure work.

The firm’s permanent capital structure, detailed at thekaufmanco.com, means its underwriting does not depend on a financing window or on the next Fed decision breaking in its favor. Its 10 operating companies include Convivium Living, DanReDev, DEK Builds, Design Build Affordable, DK Homes, Forge Development Partners, Kaufman Development, Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting, LoneStar Kaufman and Kaufman Ventures, whose portfolio includes BridgeStar, Meridian, LandBriefing, SpreadSight, FoundCheck, ServerDomes and Mr Good Container Homes. Oldivai is an aligned, independently led workforce housing partner. The platform represents more than $2 billion in project value and more than 10,000 housing units across more than 25 years of building, lending and investing.

The implication for Texas builders, sellers and the communities counting on housing starts is straightforward: as rate-driven retrades thin the pool of buyers who can actually perform at closing, capital with a longer horizon and no fund-cycle pressure becomes more valuable to projects that need to move forward. Kaufman’s position is that reliability at the closing table, rather than aggressive repricing, is what keeps housing pipelines and the local economies attached to them moving through a higher-rate cycle.